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Unusual weather system poses risks for much of NM through Tuesday

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INCREASING RISK OF AREAS OF HEAVY TO PERHAPS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO FROM LATER SUNDAY TO AT LEAST TUESDAY.

AN UNUSUAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE EVOLVING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP AND WILL EXTEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND... AT TIMES... BE EVEN MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY TO EVEN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE.

THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALES THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME. THE PRECIPITATION UPSWING IS MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE STATE.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THAT SURGE PROGRESSES TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ALL OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST IMPACTED AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR AND SOME DISTANCE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM... BOTH THESE AREAS WILL STILL HAVE SOME ENHANCED HEAVY RAINFALL RISK TUESDAY AS WELL. THE MOISTURE FEED MAY WELL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH EAST INTO MID OR EVEN LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK... BUT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE LOCALIZED BY THEN.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD... LOCALLY EVEN MORE... THIS COULD CREATE LOCAL FLASH FLOODING OF SOME SMALL STREAMS AND ARROYOS... ALONG WITH EVEN SOME RISK OF THE LARGER STREAM FLOODING IF THE HEAVY RAINS PERSIST LONG ENOUGH.

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