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The first water supply forecast for 2013 reflects both a slow start to the 2012-2013 snow accumulation season, as well as a storm track that has only intermittently targeted the New Mexico mountain regions so far this winter.
A dry autumn coupled with the late start to winter weather conditions add up to a disappointing early runoff forecast for New Mexico.
Forecast flows for the Rio Grande include 47 percent of normal into Cochiti Lake and 37 percent at Elephant Butte Lake. Other Rio Grande Basin reservoir forecast inflows range from 64 percent of normal at El Vado Lake to 41 percent of normal at Jemez Canyon Reservoir.
Inflow to Santa Rosa Lake is expected to be 39 percent of normal while in the San Juan Basin, Navajo Reservoir is expecting 62 percent of normal inflow.
Precipitation across New Mexico during December 2012 ranged from well below normal in the southeast plains to above normal in the north central mountains and the far northwest. Water Year 2013 precipitation, October through December 2012, was well below normal across the southern two thirds of New Mexico and below normal in the northern third of the state.