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Not much happening for a while. That’s the outlook for the New Mexico economy from the annual economic outlook conference presented last week by New Mexico State University and Wells Fargo Bank.
Eugenio Aleman, Wells Fargo senior economist, offered the national outlook, beginning with a tautology.
“We’re closer to a recovery today than we were yesterday,” he said. Aleman sees gross domestic product growth at 1.7 percent this year, about in the middle of projections from other groups.
Not so much for New Mexico.
Jim Peach, NMSU Regents Professor of Economics, estimates the state’s 2013 job growth at between zero and one percent.
That is, if the federal sequestration problem — the across the board spending cuts — gets fixed. Then number of wage jobs in the state might — just might — return to pre-recession levels by 2018.
At the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Peach found support for his view.
The bank tracks the business cycle in each state and also groups statistics with behavior, suggesting state economic performance six months in the future.
For New Mexico these leading indictors show no improvement in the economy and perhaps a decline. Since dropping in 2008, the state’s business cycle has flat lined.
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