Probability of a plane crash

An interesting nugget came out of a Defense Nuclear Safety Board memo last month.

LANL officials apparently were asked about the probability of a plane crash while fighting a wildfire near a nuclear facility.

Here is what the memo said:


"During last year’s Las Conchas fire, aircraft were used as part of the overall

wildland firefighting and containment effort. This week, LANL management responded to an

NNSA site office request by submitting an evaluation of aircraft crash probabilities for firefighting

aircraft. Laboratory analysts concluded that crash probabilities did not exceed 10-7 per fight

directly over a nuclear facility and therefore no additional controls are necessary to protect LANL

 nuclear facilities from firefighting aircraft crashes."