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Analysis by professors at the University of Chicago and Northwestern University predicts that New Mexico will be one of the states to suffer a collapse of its public pension plan in the next two decades.
They predict that New Mexico will run out of pension revenue in 2023, and the following year be required to pay out $2.6 billion in public employee pensions, a sum representing 46 percent of the entire state annual budget revenue.
“If we are going to keep providing generous pensions to state workers, taxes will have to rise dramatically in the near future to pay for them,” said Professor Joshua Rauh of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in a news release by New Mexico Watchdog.
Rauh and economist Robert Novy-Marx of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business have developed a model of state pension fund payments across the U.S. and identified 31 states they predict will run out of state pension fund money within the next 16 years.
New Mexico falls within that range. In fact, the Rauh/Novy-Marx model predicts that by 2023, New Mexico’s state pension plan will go bust.
The model is based on a given state contributing to its pension funds at the present value of any newly accrued benefits and working on an assumption that a state will earn 8 percent on their investments. Using those assumptions:
• New Mexico would run out of pension fund revenue in 2023.
•Then the state would be expected to pay out $2.6 billion in state employee pensions in 2024.
•That $2.6 billion figure represents an estimated 46 percent of the entire state tax revenue for a given year.
In other words, if the Rauh/Novy-Marx model holds true, in less than 15 years, New Mexico will have pension obligations that equal nearly one-half of the state’s entire annual intake of taxes.
“The only solutions that will work are solutions that are politically not viewed as desirable,” Rauh said.
Rauh goes on to say in a recent Internet posting: “If we are going to keep providing generous pensions to state workers, taxes will have to rise dramatically in the near future to pay for them.”
Some states — like Colorado — are looking to renege on the promises it made to future and current retirees in the face of a looming fiscal crisis that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimates at $3 trillion nationally. As one would expect, state employees in Colorado are howling, but even if New Mexico lawmakers wanted to imitate the actions of Colorado legislators, the going may prove considerably tougher.
That’s because New Mexico is similar to at least eight states in which public-sector pension obligations are not only protected by state constitutions, they are also protected by explicit benefit guarantees.
According to Article XX of the New Mexico Constitution, “upon meeting the minimum service requirements … a member of a plan shall acquire a vested property right with due process protections under the applicable provisions of the New Mexico and the United States constitutions.”
In plain English, even if New Mexico lawmakers had the gumption to roll back some pension benefits, they might well have to clear the legislative hurdles of actually amending the state constitution.
Rauh and Novy-Marx predict which state pension funds will run dry and when:
•2018-Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut
•2019-Arkansas, West Virginia
•2020-Kentucky, Hawaii, Indiana
•2021-Colorado, Missouri, Mississippi, New Hampshire, Kansas
•2023- New Mexico, Ohio, Rhode Island, Alabama, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Vermont