.....Advertisement.....
.....Advertisement.....

Gun risks outweigh the benefits

-A A +A

In the hope of contributing something constructive to the argument about the benefits of having armed civilians in the public square and schools, I would like to try a sort of risk-benefit analysis.
To measure “benefit” we need to determine the likelihood that you can successfully intervene, using a gun, if you or someone near you becomes a victim of a violent crime in a situation that would validate the defense of justifiable homicide under New Mexico law.
The FBI reports that the rate of violent crime in New Mexico in 2010 was 589 crimes per 100,000 population; the national rate was 404.
The 2008 National Crime Victimization Survey (latest available) says that there were 4,856,510 victims of violent crimes that year, a rate of 1,595 per 100,000 population.
A valid rough guess might be that the probability of becoming a victim is around 1,000 per 100,000 per year.
Because you may defend another as well as yourself, you have to add in the probability of being near another victim.
To try to account for that let’s just add another 1,000. So the probability of an opportunity to realize a benefit of carrying a gun is about 2,000 per 100,000 per year, or 2 percent per year.
At that rate most of the people who carry firearms can expect to have one benefit occur in their lifetime.


If you subscribe to the newspaper, you receive FREE access to all the exclusive content of the web site! Simply register to receive uninterrupted access to our award-winning and in-depth local online content!

Renew Current or Past Subscription / Register for Online Subscription

If you currently subscribe or have subscribed in the past to the Los Alamos Monitor, then simply find your account number on your mailing label and enter it below.

Click the question mark below to see where your account ID appears on your mailing label.

Newspaper Acct. ID:
info
Street Address:
(exactly as it appears on the label)

If you are a subscriber and you do not know your account ID or don't have a copy of your newspaper available that shows the information on the address label you can click continue below to search for your account.

New Subscription/30 Day Free Trial Account

If you are new to the award winning Los Alamos Monitor and wish to get a subscription or simply gain access to our online content then please enter your ZIP code below and continue to setup your account.

ZIP Code:



Create a limited access account.
Register to participate in community forums, post on the community calendar, blog etc. This registration does not give you full access to read our award winning content, etc.

The Los Alamos Monitor | lacirculation@lamonitor.com | 505-662-4185
256 DP Road, Los Alamos, NM 87544
Office Hours are 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., Monday through Friday